Leon 2–0 Atletico San Luis: Result & Stats

Leon

FT

2 – 0

Atletico San Luis

7/10/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Estadio León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Leon41%

×Draw22%

Atletico San Luis37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeonExpected goals in this matchAtletico San Luis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.72

Leon

1.84

Atletico San Luis

1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

2.43

creates per match

1.00

2.43

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Leon

2.43

Atletico San Luis

1.00

allows per match

Leon

2.43

Atletico San Luis

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leon+0.00on par

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

Atletico San Luis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Leon or draw

63%

Leon or Atletico San Luis

78%

Draw or Atletico San Luis

59%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+

22%

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals

84%

Leon 2+ goals

55%

Leon 3+ goals

28%

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

82%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

51%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)

53%

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 2.43, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Atletico San Luis away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 2.43 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.84

Atletico San Luis attack 1.00 + Leon defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leon scores more

41%

level

22%

Atletico San Luis scores more

37%

Leon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff