Leo Victor 1–3 Notch: Result & Stats

Leo Victor

FT

1 – 3

Notch

3/4/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 8Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Leo Victor38%

×Draw23%

Notch39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leo VictorExpected goals in this matchNotch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.68

Leo Victor

1.65

Notch

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 58 away

1.82

creates per match

1.76

1.59

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Leo Victor

1.82

Notch

1.76

allows per match

Leo Victor

1.59

Notch

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leo Victor+0.00on par

Notch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leo Victor ↓

Notch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Leo Victor or draw

61%

Leo Victor or Notch

77%

Draw or Notch

62%

Winning margin

Leo Victor wins by 2+

19%

Notch wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Leo Victor 1+ goals

81%

Leo Victor 2+ goals

49%

Leo Victor 3+ goals

23%

Notch 1+ goals

81%

Notch 2+ goals

50%

Notch 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Leo Victor (draw refunded)

49%

Notch (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leo Victor at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.59 · 61 matches

Notch away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.48 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leo Victor attack 1.82 + Notch defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.65

Notch attack 1.76 + Leo Victor defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leo Victor scores more

38%

level

23%

Notch scores more

39%

Notch at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Notch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff