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Lens W vs Paris Saint Germain W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Lens W
Lens W
Preview
16:00
Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
9/5/2026Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 1Degouve-Brabant Stadium
69%
Paris Saint Germain W
model favours
13%18%69%
0–2
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Lens W13%
×Draw18%
Paris Saint Germain W69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lens W
0.92
Paris Saint Germain W
2.35

Paris Saint Germain W creates 155% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 88 away

creates per match

Lens W
1.00
Paris Saint Germain W
2.61

allows per match

Lens W
2.10
Paris Saint Germain W
0.84

finishing

Lens W+0.00on par
Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lens W ↓

Paris Saint Germain W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–211%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lens W or draw
31%
Lens W or Paris Saint Germain W
82%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain W
87%

Winning margin

Lens W wins by 2+
4%
Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Lens W 1+ goals
60%
Lens W 2+ goals
23%
Lens W 3+ goals
7%
Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
90%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
68%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Lens W (draw refunded)
16%
Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lens W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Paris Saint Germain W away — creates 2.61, concedes 0.84 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lens W attack 1.00 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Paris Saint Germain W attack 2.61 + Lens W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Lens W scores more
13%
level
18%
Paris Saint Germain W scores more
69%

Paris Saint Germain W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LLWLL
W
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lens W face Paris Saint Germain W (Feminine Division 1)

Feminine Division 1 returns with Lens W hosting Paris Saint Germain W. Match starts September 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lens W host Paris Saint Germain W at Degouve-Brabant Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.