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Leningradets vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2024

Leningradets
Leningradets
Preview
15:00
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
4/3/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Petrovsky Stadium
57%
Nizhny Novgorod
model favours
18%26%57%

Leningradets score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Leningradets18%
×Draw26%
Nizhny Novgorod57%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leningradets
0.73
Nizhny Novgorod
1.55

Nizhny Novgorod creates 112% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Leningradets
0.57
Nizhny Novgorod
1.40

allows per match

Leningradets
1.71
Nizhny Novgorod
0.90

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–116%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw
43%
Leningradets or Nizhny Novgorod
74%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
82%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+
5%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals
52%
Leningradets 2+ goals
17%
Leningradets 3+ goals
4%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
79%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
46%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)
24%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 0.57 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.73

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.40 + Leningradets defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Leningradets scores more
18%
level
26%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
57%

Nizhny Novgorod at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 29% of Leningradets’s matches
  • Leningradets sit 18, Nizhny Novgorod 2 in the table
  • Leningradets and Nizhny Novgorod have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Leningradets
LLLDW
Novgorod
WLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Leningradets host Nizhny Novgorod

April 3, 2027: Leningradets take on Nizhny Novgorod in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Leningradets host Nizhny Novgorod at Petrovsky Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.