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Lenense vs Urraca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Lenense
Lenense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Urraca
Urraca
5/2/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 5Campo El Sotón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Lenense39%
×Draw28%
Urraca33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lenense
1.20
Urraca
1.09

Lenense creates 10% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 79 away

creates per match

Lenense
1.27
Urraca
0.86

allows per match

Lenense
1.32
Urraca
1.13

finishing

Lenense+0.00on par
Urraca+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lenense ↓

Urraca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lenense or draw
67%
Lenense or Urraca
72%
Draw or Urraca
61%

Winning margin

Lenense wins by 2+
16%
Urraca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lenense 1+ goals
70%
Lenense 2+ goals
34%
Lenense 3+ goals
12%
Urraca 1+ goals
66%
Urraca 2+ goals
30%
Urraca 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lenense (draw refunded)
54%
Urraca (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lenense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.32 · 98 matches

Urraca away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lenense attack 1.27 + Urraca defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Urraca attack 0.86 + Lenense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lenense scores more
39%
level
28%
Urraca scores more
33%

Lenense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Lenense 1–1 Urraca

Lenense and Urraca drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Campo El Sotón in Pola de Lena.