Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lenense vs Avilés Stadium — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Lenense
Lenense
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Avilés Stadium
Avilés Stadium
3/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Campo El Sotón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Lenense47%
×Draw26%
Avilés Stadium27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lenense
1.51
Avilés Stadium
1.08

Lenense creates 40% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 80 away

creates per match

Lenense
1.27
Avilés Stadium
0.85

allows per match

Lenense
1.32
Avilés Stadium
1.75

finishing

Lenense+0.00on par
Avilés Stadium+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lenense ↓

Avilés Stadium →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lenense or draw
73%
Lenense or Avilés Stadium
74%
Draw or Avilés Stadium
53%

Winning margin

Lenense wins by 2+
24%
Avilés Stadium wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lenense 1+ goals
78%
Lenense 2+ goals
44%
Lenense 3+ goals
19%
Avilés Stadium 1+ goals
66%
Avilés Stadium 2+ goals
29%
Avilés Stadium 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lenense (draw refunded)
63%
Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lenense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.32 · 98 matches

Avilés Stadium away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lenense attack 1.27 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.51

Avilés Stadium attack 0.85 + Lenense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lenense scores more
47%
level
26%
Avilés Stadium scores more
27%

Lenense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lenense vs Avilés Stadium

Lenense beat Avilés Stadium 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Campo El Sotón in Pola de Lena.