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Lendorf vs Maria Saal — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Lendorf
Lendorf
CANC
21:00
Maria Saal
Maria Saal
6/7/2020Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 29Thomas-Morgenstern-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Lendorf54%
×Draw21%
Maria Saal25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lendorf
2.14
Maria Saal
1.39

Lendorf creates 54% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 49 away

creates per match

Lendorf
1.75
Maria Saal
1.43

allows per match

Lendorf
1.35
Maria Saal
2.53

finishing

Lendorf+0.00on par
Maria Saal+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lendorf ↓

Maria Saal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Lendorf or draw
75%
Lendorf or Maria Saal
79%
Draw or Maria Saal
46%

Winning margin

Lendorf wins by 2+
33%
Maria Saal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lendorf 1+ goals
88%
Lendorf 2+ goals
63%
Lendorf 3+ goals
36%
Maria Saal 1+ goals
75%
Maria Saal 2+ goals
40%
Maria Saal 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lendorf (draw refunded)
69%
Maria Saal (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lendorf at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.35 · 92 matches

Maria Saal away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lendorf attack 1.75 + Maria Saal defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.14

Maria Saal attack 1.43 + Lendorf defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lendorf scores more
54%
level
21%
Maria Saal scores more
25%

Lendorf at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lendorf face Maria Saal (Landesliga - Karnten)

Landesliga - Karnten returns with Lendorf hosting Maria Saal. Match starts June 7, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lendorf host Maria Saal at Thomas-Morgenstern-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.