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Leiknir R. vs Fylkir — 1. Deild 2026

Leiknir R.
Leiknir R.
Preview
19:15
Fylkir
Fylkir
8/7/20261. Deild1. Deild · Round 17
Big match
47%
Fylkir
model favours
30%23%47%

59% of Leiknir R.’s goals come after the 75th minute

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Leiknir R.30%
×Draw23%
Fylkir47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leiknir R.
1.38
Fylkir
1.78

Fylkir creates 29% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

creates per match

Leiknir R.
1.24
Fylkir
2.04

allows per match

Leiknir R.
1.52
Fylkir
1.52

finishing

Leiknir R.+0.00on par
Fylkir+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leiknir R. ↓

Fylkir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Leiknir R. or draw
53%
Leiknir R. or Fylkir
77%
Draw or Fylkir
70%

Winning margin

Leiknir R. wins by 2+
13%
Fylkir wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Leiknir R. 1+ goals
75%
Leiknir R. 2+ goals
40%
Leiknir R. 3+ goals
16%
Fylkir 1+ goals
83%
Fylkir 2+ goals
53%
Fylkir 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Leiknir R. (draw refunded)
39%
Fylkir (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leiknir R. at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

Fylkir away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leiknir R. attack 1.24 + Fylkir defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Fylkir attack 2.04 + Leiknir R. defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Leiknir R. scores more
30%
level
23%
Fylkir scores more
47%

Fylkir at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leiknir R. score first in only 29% of matches
  • Fylkir score first in only 29% of matches
  • 71% of Fylkir’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
R.
LLDWL
Fylkir
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Leiknir R. host Fylkir

August 7, 2026: Leiknir R. take on Fylkir in 1. Deild. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.