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Leicester vs Wolves — Premier League 2026

Leicester
Leicester
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wolves
Wolves
J. Vardy 15' (pen)
11/8/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Leicester45%
×Draw26%
Wolves29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester
1.43
Wolves
1.08

Leicester creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 31 away

creates per match

Leicester
1.14
Wolves
0.82

allows per match

Leicester
1.35
Wolves
1.72

finishing

Leicester+0.03on par
Wolves-0.24scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Leicester or draw
71%
Leicester or Wolves
74%
Draw or Wolves
55%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+
22%
Wolves wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals
76%
Leicester 2+ goals
42%
Leicester 3+ goals
17%
Wolves 1+ goals
66%
Wolves 2+ goals
29%
Wolves 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)
61%
Wolves (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.35 · 6 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.72 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.14 + Wolves defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.43

Wolves attack 0.82 + Leicester defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leicester scores more
45%
level
26%
Wolves scores more
29%

Leicester at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
Rúben NevesWolvesWolves · M
7.9

Match Events

13'
Dennis PraetGoal cancelled
15'
J. VardyPenalty
38'
James JustinGoal cancelled
41'
Leander Dendoncker
46'
M. Albrighton← L. Thomas
50'
Rúben Neves
60'
Adama Traoré← Daniel Podence
63'
Jonny Evans
72'
H. Barnes← J. Maddison
76'
Fernando Marçal← R. Aït Nouri
79'
Fábio Silva← Pedro Neto
80'
W. Morgan← D. Praet
81'
Wesley Fofana
90'
Max Kilman

Possession

49%Leicester

Shots

10Leicester

Pass accuracy

50%Leicester

Statistics

LeicesterWolves
Overview
49%Possession51%
10Total Shots8
6Corners3
12Fouls8
Shots
10Total Shots8
3On Target2
4Off Target5
3Blocked1
6Inside Box4
4Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
492Total Passes505
406Accurate Passes415
83%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls8
2Yellow Cards3

Match Recap: Leicester vs Wolves

Leicester beat Wolves 1-0 in Premier League on November 8, 2020.

Goals: J. Vardy (15' pen).

Wolves controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 10.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.