Leicester 2–0 Wolves: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Wolves

J. Maddison 45'

M. Doherty 29' (OG)

8/18/2018

Premier League · Round 2King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Leicester46%

×Draw26%

Wolves28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.08

Leicester

1.45

Wolves

1.08

Leicester creates 34% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 31 away

1.18

creates per match

0.82

1.34

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Leicester

1.18

Wolves

0.82

allows per match

Leicester

1.34

Wolves

1.72

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Leicester+0.12scores more

Wolves-0.24scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

72%

Leicester or Wolves

74%

Draw or Wolves

54%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

22%

Wolves wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

77%

Leicester 2+ goals

42%

Leicester 3+ goals

18%

Wolves 1+ goals

66%

Wolves 2+ goals

29%

Wolves 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

62%

Wolves (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.34 · 10 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.72 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.18 + Wolves defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.45

Wolves attack 0.82 + Leicester defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leicester scores more

46%

level

26%

Wolves scores more

28%

Leicester at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

B. Chilwell

Leicester · D

8.2

Match Events

29'

M. DohertyOwn goal

45'

J. Maddison↳ Ricardo Pereira

46'

Léo Bonatini← Diogo Jota

46'

Adama Traoré← Hélder Costa

60'

D. Amartey← M. Albrighton

66'

Jamie Vardy

69'

M. Gibbs-White← M. Doherty

74'

Morgan Gibbs-White

78'

Jonny Evans

82'

K. Iheanacho← J. Maddison

82'

Adrien Silva← D. Gray

90'

Harry Maguire

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterWolves

Overview

42%Possession58%

6Total Shots11

1Corners9

10Fouls8

Shots

6Total Shots11

2On Target3

2Off Target7

2Blocked1

1Inside Box6

5Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

382Total Passes500

316Accurate Passes404

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1