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Legionovia Legionowo vs Swit — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
1 – 2
Swit
Swit
6/19/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 36Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo47%
×Draw23%
Swit30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
1.81
Swit
1.41

Legionovia Legionowo creates 28% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 103 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
2.00
Swit
1.55

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.26
Swit
1.61

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
Swit+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Swit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
70%
Legionovia Legionowo or Swit
77%
Draw or Swit
53%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
26%
Swit wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
84%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
54%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
27%
Swit 1+ goals
76%
Swit 2+ goals
41%
Swit 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
61%
Swit (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Swit away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 2.00 + Swit defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.81

Swit attack 1.55 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
47%
level
23%
Swit scores more
30%

Legionovia Legionowo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Legionovia Legionowo 1–2 Swit

Swit beat Legionovia Legionowo 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.