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Legion Dynamo vs Spartak Nalchik — Second League - Group 1 2020

Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Spartak Nalchik
Spartak Nalchik
5/29/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 5Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Legion Dynamo43%
×Draw26%
Spartak Nalchik31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legion Dynamo
1.43
Spartak Nalchik
1.18

Legion Dynamo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 96 away

creates per match

Legion Dynamo
1.52
Spartak Nalchik
1.24

allows per match

Legion Dynamo
1.11
Spartak Nalchik
1.33

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par
Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

Spartak Nalchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw
69%
Legion Dynamo or Spartak Nalchik
74%
Draw or Spartak Nalchik
57%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
20%
Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
76%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
42%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
17%
Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals
69%
Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals
33%
Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
58%
Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Spartak Nalchik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.52 + Spartak Nalchik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Spartak Nalchik attack 1.24 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more
43%
level
26%
Spartak Nalchik scores more
31%

Legion Dynamo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legion Dynamo vs Spartak Nalchik

Legion Dynamo beat Spartak Nalchik 2-0 in Second League - Group 1 on May 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.