Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Legion Dynamo vs SKA Rostov — Second League - Group 1 2020

Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SKA Rostov
SKA Rostov
5/10/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Legion Dynamo35%
×Draw25%
SKA Rostov40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legion Dynamo
1.35
SKA Rostov
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 58 away

creates per match

Legion Dynamo
1.52
SKA Rostov
1.79

allows per match

Legion Dynamo
1.11
SKA Rostov
1.19

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par
SKA Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

SKA Rostov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw
60%
Legion Dynamo or SKA Rostov
75%
Draw or SKA Rostov
65%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
16%
SKA Rostov wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
74%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
39%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
15%
SKA Rostov 1+ goals
77%
SKA Rostov 2+ goals
42%
SKA Rostov 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
47%
SKA Rostov (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

SKA Rostov away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.52 + SKA Rostov defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.35

SKA Rostov attack 1.79 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more
35%
level
25%
SKA Rostov scores more
40%

SKA Rostov at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SKA Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Legion Dynamo 0–0 SKA Rostov

Legion Dynamo and SKA Rostov drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 1 on May 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Makhachkala.