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Legion Dynamo vs Forte Taganrog — Second League - Group 1 2020

Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
4/27/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Legion Dynamo36%
×Draw26%
Forte Taganrog38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legion Dynamo
1.33
Forte Taganrog
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 64 away

creates per match

Legion Dynamo
1.52
Forte Taganrog
1.61

allows per match

Legion Dynamo
1.11
Forte Taganrog
1.14

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par
Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

Forte Taganrog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw
62%
Legion Dynamo or Forte Taganrog
74%
Draw or Forte Taganrog
64%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
16%
Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
74%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
38%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
15%
Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
74%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
39%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
49%
Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.52 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

Forte Taganrog attack 1.61 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more
36%
level
26%
Forte Taganrog scores more
38%

Forte Taganrog at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Legion Dynamo 1–0 Forte Taganrog

Legion Dynamo beat Forte Taganrog 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on April 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Makhachkala.