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Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice — Ekstraklasa 2018

Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice
3/17/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 25Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Legia Warszawa53%
×Draw23%
Piast Gliwice23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa
1.77
Piast Gliwice
1.08

Legia Warszawa creates 64% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 15 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa
1.85
Piast Gliwice
1.12

allows per match

Legia Warszawa
1.05
Piast Gliwice
1.70

finishing

Legia Warszawa-0.17scores less
Piast Gliwice+0.28scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa ↓

Piast Gliwice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa or draw
77%
Legia Warszawa or Piast Gliwice
77%
Draw or Piast Gliwice
47%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
30%
Piast Gliwice wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
83%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
53%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
26%
Piast Gliwice 1+ goals
66%
Piast Gliwice 2+ goals
29%
Piast Gliwice 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
70%
Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.70 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa attack 1.85 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.77

Piast Gliwice attack 1.12 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Legia Warszawa scores more
53%
level
23%
Piast Gliwice scores more
23%

Legia Warszawa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Legia Warszawa 3 – 1 Piast Gliwice

Legia Warszawa beat Piast Gliwice 3-1 in Ekstraklasa on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Warszawa.