Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan — Ekstraklasa 2018

Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan
11/12/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 15Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Legia Warszawa42%
×Draw25%
Lech Poznan33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa
1.49
Lech Poznan
1.29

Legia Warszawa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 26 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa
1.85
Lech Poznan
1.53

allows per match

Legia Warszawa
1.05
Lech Poznan
1.13

finishing

Legia Warszawa-0.17scores less
Lech Poznan-0.30scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa ↓

Lech Poznan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa or draw
67%
Legia Warszawa or Lech Poznan
75%
Draw or Lech Poznan
58%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
20%
Lech Poznan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
77%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
44%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
19%
Lech Poznan 1+ goals
72%
Lech Poznan 2+ goals
37%
Lech Poznan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
56%
Lech Poznan (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

Lech Poznan away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa attack 1.85 + Lech Poznan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.49

Lech Poznan attack 1.53 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Legia Warszawa scores more
42%
level
25%
Lech Poznan scores more
33%

Legia Warszawa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Legia Warszawa 0–0 Lech Poznan

Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan drew 0-0 in Ekstraklasa on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Warszawa.