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Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow — Ekstraklasa 2018

Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow
12/17/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 19Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Legia Warszawa55%
×Draw23%
Cracovia Krakow22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa
1.81
Cracovia Krakow
1.06

Legia Warszawa creates 71% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 14 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa
1.85
Cracovia Krakow
1.08

allows per match

Legia Warszawa
1.05
Cracovia Krakow
1.78

finishing

Legia Warszawa-0.17scores less
Cracovia Krakow-0.08on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa ↓

Cracovia Krakow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa or draw
78%
Legia Warszawa or Cracovia Krakow
77%
Draw or Cracovia Krakow
45%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
31%
Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
84%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
54%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
27%
Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals
65%
Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals
29%
Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
71%
Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

Cracovia Krakow away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa attack 1.85 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.81

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.08 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Legia Warszawa scores more
55%
level
23%
Cracovia Krakow scores more
22%

Legia Warszawa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow

Legia Warszawa beat Cracovia Krakow 2-0 in Ekstraklasa on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Warszawa.