Leganes 1–0 Mallorca: Result & Stats | La Liga

Leganes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mallorca

M. Braithwaite 31'

10/26/2019

La Liga · Round 10Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Leganes46%

×Draw27%

Mallorca27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeganesExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.99

Leganes

1.37

Mallorca

0.99

Leganes creates 38% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 97 away

0.98

creates per match

0.79

1.20

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Leganes

0.98

Mallorca

0.79

allows per match

Leganes

1.20

Mallorca

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leganes+0.00on par

Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganes ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Leganes or draw

73%

Leganes or Mallorca

73%

Draw or Mallorca

54%

Winning margin

Leganes wins by 2+

22%

Mallorca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Leganes 1+ goals

75%

Leganes 2+ goals

40%

Leganes 3+ goals

16%

Mallorca 1+ goals

63%

Mallorca 2+ goals

26%

Mallorca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Leganes (draw refunded)

63%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganes at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.76 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganes attack 0.98 + Mallorca defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.37

Mallorca attack 0.79 + Leganes defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leganes scores more

46%

level

27%

Mallorca scores more

27%

Leganes at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leganes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Jonathan Silva

Leganes · D

7.7

Match Events

31'

M. Braithwaite↳ R. Rosales

47'

Ante Budimir

56'

Dimitrios Siovas

59'

C. Awaziem← D. Siovas

59'

T. Kubo← Dani Rodríguez

68'

José Arnáiz← Óscar Rodríguez

68'

A. Trajkovski← Febas

71'

Roberto Rosales

77'

Cristian Rivera

79'

Eraso← Roque Mesa

79'

Álex Alegría← A. Budimir

90'

Iván Cuéllar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeganesMallorca

Overview

42%Possession58%

9Total Shots9

4Corners5

19Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots9

3On Target1

5Off Target5

1Blocked3

6Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

337Total Passes453

270Accurate Passes381

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls13

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2