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Leganés II vs Trival Valderas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Leganés II
Leganés II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
3/9/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 24Instalación Deportiva Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Leganés II47%
×Draw28%
Trival Valderas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leganés II
1.35
Trival Valderas
0.90

Leganés II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 115 away

creates per match

Leganés II
1.41
Trival Valderas
0.97

allows per match

Leganés II
0.82
Trival Valderas
1.30

finishing

Leganés II+0.00on par
Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganés II ↓

Trival Valderas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Leganés II or draw
75%
Leganés II or Trival Valderas
72%
Draw or Trival Valderas
53%

Winning margin

Leganés II wins by 2+
22%
Trival Valderas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Leganés II 1+ goals
74%
Leganés II 2+ goals
39%
Leganés II 3+ goals
15%
Trival Valderas 1+ goals
59%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
23%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Leganés II (draw refunded)
65%
Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganés II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 78 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganés II attack 1.41 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.35

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + Leganés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Leganés II scores more
47%
level
28%
Trival Valderas scores more
25%

Leganés II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Leganés II 1 – 1 Trival Valderas

Leganés II and Trival Valderas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Instalación Deportiva Butarque in Leganés.