Leganés II 2–0 Navalcarnero: Result & Stats

Leganés II

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Navalcarnero

Jorge García 73'

Dani Plomer 17'

2/16/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 25Estadio Anexo Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Leganés II35%

×Draw30%

Navalcarnero35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leganés IIExpected goals in this matchNavalcarnero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.06

Leganés II

1.05

Navalcarnero

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 13 away

1.41

creates per match

1.31

0.82

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Leganés II

1.41

Navalcarnero

1.31

allows per match

Leganés II

0.82

Navalcarnero

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leganés II+0.00on par

Navalcarnero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganés II ↓

Navalcarnero →

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Leganés II or draw

65%

Leganés II or Navalcarnero

70%

Draw or Navalcarnero

65%

Winning margin

Leganés II wins by 2+

14%

Navalcarnero wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Leganés II 1+ goals

65%

Leganés II 2+ goals

28%

Leganés II 3+ goals

Navalcarnero 1+ goals

65%

Navalcarnero 2+ goals

29%

Navalcarnero 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Leganés II (draw refunded)

50%

Navalcarnero (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Leganés II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 78 matches

Navalcarnero away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Leganés II attack 1.41 + Navalcarnero defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.05

Navalcarnero attack 1.31 + Leganés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 35%?"

Leganés II scores more

35%

level

30%

Navalcarnero scores more

35%

Leganés II at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Dani Plomer

48'

Jorge García← Carlos Llamas

53'

Jaime Manso← Manuel Tello

62'

Álvaro Rivero← Galo

67'

Álex Alonso← Dani Rodríguez

73'

Jorge García

76'

Yerpes← Dani Plomer

76'

Juan Díaz← Hakim El Mokh

Leganés

Navalcarnero

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Plomer

▼

Galo

Manager: Luis Cembranos

48'▲Jorge García←▼Carlos Llamas

62'▲Álvaro Rivero←▼Galo

76'▲Yerpes←▼Dani Plomer

Leganés II substitutes

GarcíaRiveroYerpes

Manager: Luis Ayllón

53'▲Jaime Manso←▼Manuel Tello

67'▲Álex Alonso←▼Dani Rodríguez

76'▲Juan Díaz←▼Hakim El Mokh

Navalcarnero substitutes

MansoAlonsoDíaz

Match Recap: Leganés II vs Navalcarnero

Leganés II beat Navalcarnero 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 16, 2020.

Goals: Dani Plomer (17'), Jorge García (73').

The match was played at Estadio Anexo Butarque in Leganés.

Leganés II vs Navalcarnero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Leganés II vs Navalcarnero