Leganés II 2–3 Alcobendas Sport: Result & Stats

Leganés II

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Alcobendas Sport

A. Mourid 62'

Iván Amores 18'

Gonzalo Sáiz 65'

Felix 48'

Antonio Rangel 33'

11/17/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 13Estadio Anexo Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Leganés II43%

×Draw27%

Alcobendas Sport29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leganés IIExpected goals in this matchAlcobendas Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.06

Leganés II

1.35

Alcobendas Sport

1.06

Leganés II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 117 away

1.41

creates per match

1.31

0.82

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Leganés II

1.41

Alcobendas Sport

1.31

allows per match

Leganés II

0.82

Alcobendas Sport

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leganés II+0.00on par

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganés II ↓

Alcobendas Sport →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leganés II or draw

71%

Leganés II or Alcobendas Sport

73%

Draw or Alcobendas Sport

57%

Winning margin

Leganés II wins by 2+

20%

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leganés II 1+ goals

74%

Leganés II 2+ goals

39%

Leganés II 3+ goals

15%

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals

65%

Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals

29%

Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Leganés II (draw refunded)

60%

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Leganés II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 78 matches

Alcobendas Sport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Leganés II attack 1.41 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.35

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.31 + Leganés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leganés II scores more

43%

level

27%

Alcobendas Sport scores more

29%

Leganés II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

33'

48'

55'

62'

65'

68'

Nacho Heras← A. Mourid

79'

Javier Gómez← Jorge Escobar

80'

A. Kamate← S. Buer

85'

Jorge Shafa← M. Camara

89'

Enrique Moran← Álvaro García

Leganés

Alcobendas

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Luis Cembranos

55'▲Mario←▼Dani Plomer

68'▲Nacho Heras←▼A. Mourid

79'▲Javier Gómez←▼Jorge Escobar

Leganés II substitutes

MarioHerasGómez

Manager: Javi Baños

80'▲A. Kamate←▼S. Buer

85'▲Jorge Shafa←▼M. Camara

89'▲Enrique Moran←▼Álvaro García

Alcobendas Sport substitutes

KamateShafaMoran