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Leeds vs Rotherham — Championship 2018

Leeds
Leeds
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rotherham
Rotherham
J. Newell 54'
11/21/2015ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Leeds73%
×Draw19%
Rotherham8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
2.02
Rotherham
0.50

Leeds creates 304% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 12 away

creates per match

Leeds
1.97
Rotherham
0.47

allows per match

Leeds
0.53
Rotherham
2.06

finishing

Leeds+0.37scores more
Rotherham-0.05on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
92%
Leeds or Rotherham
81%
Draw or Rotherham
27%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
47%
Rotherham wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
87%
Leeds 2+ goals
60%
Leeds 3+ goals
33%
Rotherham 1+ goals
39%
Rotherham 2+ goals
9%
Rotherham 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
90%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.53 · 35 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.06 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.97 + Rotherham defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.02

Rotherham attack 0.47 + Leeds defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Leeds scores more
73%
level
19%
Rotherham scores more
8%

Leeds at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. MowattLeedsLeeds · M
7.4

Match Events

22'
Joe Mattock
31'
Mirco Antenucci
46'
H. Toffolo← J. Mattock
54'
J. Newell↳ R. Smallwood
56'
Kirk Broadfoot
63'
Luke Murphy
67'
J. Botaka← S. Dallas
67'
T. Adeyemi← L. Murphy
73'
Leon Best
74'
Gaetano Berardi
79'
Joe Newell
80'
D. Ward← J. Clarke-Harris
84'
Giuseppe Bellusci
84'
Daniel Ward
85'
L. Erwin← L. Cook
90'
D. Collins← J. Newell

Possession

60%Leeds

Shots

14Leeds

Pass accuracy

55%Leeds

Statistics

LeedsRotherham
Overview
60%Possession40%
14Total Shots9
9Corners4
0Fouls0
Shots
14Total Shots9
3On Target3
7Off Target4
4Blocked2
8Inside Box5
6Outside Box4
Passing
60%Possession40%
391Total Passes264
238Accurate Passes133
61%Pass Accuracy50%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
0Fouls0
3Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards1
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Leeds vs Rotherham

Rotherham beat Leeds 1-0 in Championship on November 21, 2015.

Goals: J. Newell (54').

Leeds controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.