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Leeds vs Preston — Championship 2018

Leeds
Leeds
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Preston
Preston
T. Roberts 82', 74'
L. Cooper 37'
9/18/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Leeds62%
×Draw23%
Preston15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
1.79
Preston
0.76

Leeds creates 136% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 60 away

creates per match

Leeds
1.97
Preston
0.99

allows per match

Leeds
0.53
Preston
1.62

finishing

Leeds+0.37scores more
Preston-0.01on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
85%
Leeds or Preston
77%
Draw or Preston
38%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
36%
Preston wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
83%
Leeds 2+ goals
53%
Leeds 3+ goals
26%
Preston 1+ goals
53%
Preston 2+ goals
18%
Preston 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
80%
Preston (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.53 · 35 matches

Preston away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.97 + Preston defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.79

Preston attack 0.99 + Leeds defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Leeds scores more
62%
level
23%
Preston scores more
15%

Leeds at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
T. RobertsLeedsLeeds · F
8.4

Match Events

26'
Alan Browne
30'
Ezgjan Alioski
37'
L. Cooper↳ B. Douglas
52'
Daniel Johnson
71'
B. Barker← J. Harrop
74'
T. Roberts↳ K. Phillips
79'
P. Gallagher← A. Browne
79'
L. Nmecha← L. Moult
82'
T. Roberts↳ M. Klich
86'
S. Dallas← T. Roberts
88'
A. Forshaw← M. Klich
90'
L. Baker← Samuel Sáiz

Possession

61%Leeds

Shots

17Leeds

Pass accuracy

58%Leeds

Statistics

LeedsPreston
Overview
61%Possession39%
17Total Shots5
4Corners3
12Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots5
5On Target3
5Off Target1
7Blocked1
11Inside Box1
6Outside Box4
Passing
61%Possession39%
465Total Passes292
348Accurate Passes162
75%Pass Accuracy55%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Championship: Leeds 3–0 Preston

Leeds beat Preston 3-0 in Championship on September 18, 2018.

Goals: L. Cooper (37'), T. Roberts (74', 82').

Leeds controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds.