Leeds 1–0 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Leeds

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crystal Palace

Raphinha 90+4' (pen)

11/30/2021

Premier League · Round 14Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Leeds41%

×Draw26%

Crystal Palace33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeedsExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.23

Leeds

1.42

Crystal Palace

1.23

Leeds creates 15% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 34 away

1.56

creates per match

1.19

1.28

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Leeds

1.56

Crystal Palace

1.19

allows per match

Leeds

1.28

Crystal Palace

1.28

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Leeds-0.12scores less

Crystal Palace-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Leeds or draw

67%

Leeds or Crystal Palace

74%

Draw or Crystal Palace

59%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+

20%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals

76%

Leeds 2+ goals

41%

Leeds 3+ goals

17%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

71%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

35%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)

56%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.28 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.56 + Crystal Palace defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.42

Crystal Palace attack 1.19 + Leeds defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leeds scores more

41%

level

26%

Crystal Palace scores more

33%

Leeds at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

L. Cooper

Leeds · D

7.5

Match Events

37'

Joel Ward

39'

Conor Gallagher

42'

Pascal Struijk

46'

Rodrigo← M. Klich

46'

Junior Firpo← P. Struijk

48'

Junior Firpo

68'

C. Benteke← O. Édouard

72'

Stuart Dallas

80'

W. Hughes← J. Schlupp

87'

Tyler Roberts

90+6'

Adam Forshaw

90+2'

Liam CooperPenalty awarded

90+3'

Marc Guéhi

90+5'

C. Cresswell← T. Roberts

90'

M. Olise← J. Ayew

90+4'

RaphinhaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeedsCrystal

Overview

62%Possession38%

15Total Shots9

7Corners4

15Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots9

3On Target1

3Off Target4

9Blocked4

8Inside Box4

7Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

474Total Passes286

378Accurate Passes199

80%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls15

5Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0