Leeds 2–2 Brentford: Result & Stats

Leeds

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Brentford

P. Bamford 90+5'

T. Roberts 27'

Sergi Canós 61'

S. Baptiste 54'

12/5/2021

Premier League · Round 15Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Leeds45%

×Draw25%

Brentford30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeedsExpected goals in this matchBrentford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.25

Leeds

1.60

Brentford

1.25

Leeds creates 28% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 29 away

1.57

creates per match

1.18

1.31

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Leeds

1.57

Brentford

1.18

allows per match

Leeds

1.31

Brentford

1.64

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Leeds-0.15scores less

Brentford+0.06on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Brentford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Leeds or draw

70%

Leeds or Brentford

75%

Draw or Brentford

55%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+

23%

Brentford wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals

80%

Leeds 2+ goals

47%

Leeds 3+ goals

22%

Brentford 1+ goals

71%

Brentford 2+ goals

36%

Brentford 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)

60%

Brentford (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.64 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.57 + Brentford defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.60

Brentford attack 1.18 + Leeds defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leeds scores more

45%

level

25%

Brentford scores more

30%

Leeds at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Raphinha

Leeds · F

8.0

Match Events

15'

J. Harrison← L. Cooper

27'

29'

45+2'

54'

55'

55'

M. Klich← K. Phillips

61'

Sergi Canós↳ B. Mbeumo

68'

P. Bamford← Junior Firpo

69'

F. Onyeka← S. Baptiste

72'

Y. Wissa← Sergi Canós

75'

79'

80'

85'

90+5'

90'

90+5'

P. Bamford↳ L. Ayling

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeedsBrentford

Overview

63%Possession37%

13Total Shots9

5Corners1

11Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots9

6On Target3

4Off Target2

3Blocked4

7Inside Box7

6Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

510Total Passes308

407Accurate Passes210

80%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls9

5Yellow Cards3

7Offsides0

Match Recap: Leeds vs Brentford

Leeds and Brentford drew 2-2 in Premier League on December 5, 2021.

Goals: T. Roberts (27'), S. Baptiste (54'), Sergi Canós (61'), P. Bamford (90+5').

Leeds controlled possession (63%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.

Leeds vs Brentford — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Leeds vs Brentford