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Leeds vs Arsenal — Premier League 2026

Leeds
Leeds
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Arsenal
Arsenal
Raphinha 75' (pen)
E. Smith Rowe 84'
B. Saka 42'
Gabriel Martinelli 28', 16'
12/18/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Leeds32%
×Draw25%
Arsenal43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
1.27
Arsenal
1.51

Arsenal creates 19% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 37 away

creates per match

Leeds
1.57
Arsenal
1.71

allows per match

Leeds
1.31
Arsenal
0.96

finishing

Leeds-0.15scores less
Arsenal+0.32scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Arsenal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
57%
Leeds or Arsenal
75%
Draw or Arsenal
68%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
14%
Arsenal wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
72%
Leeds 2+ goals
36%
Leeds 3+ goals
14%
Arsenal 1+ goals
78%
Arsenal 2+ goals
44%
Arsenal 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
43%
Arsenal (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.96 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.57 + Arsenal defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.27

Arsenal attack 1.71 + Leeds defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leeds scores more
32%
level
25%
Arsenal scores more
43%

Arsenal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35
Gabriel MartinelliArsenalArsenal · M
8.6

Match Events

16'
Gabriel Martinelli↳ A. Lacazette
28'
Gabriel Martinelli↳ G. Xhaka
31'
C. Summerville← J. Harrison
42'
B. Saka
43'
Bukayo SakaGoal confirmed
52'
Joe Gelhardt
56'
Stuart Dallas
63'
Cédric Soares← T. Tomiyasu
75'
RaphinhaPenalty
78'
S. Greenwood← M. Klich
78'
E. Smith Rowe← B. Saka
81'
L. McCarron← C. Summerville
84'
E. Smith Rowe↳ M. Ødegaard
85'
Nuno Tavares← M. Ødegaard
86'
Granit Xhaka
88'
Robin Koch

Possession

51%Leeds

Shots

9Leeds

Pass accuracy

50%Leeds

Statistics

LeedsArsenal
Overview
51%Possession49%
9Total Shots21
1Corners4
11Fouls7
Shots
9Total Shots21
2On Target12
6Off Target3
1Blocked6
4Inside Box14
5Outside Box7
Passing
51%Possession49%
405Total Passes392
312Accurate Passes305
77%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
8Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls7
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Leeds vs Arsenal

Arsenal beat Leeds 4-1 in Premier League on December 18, 2021.

Goals: Gabriel Martinelli (16', 28'), B. Saka (42'), Raphinha (75' pen), E. Smith Rowe (84').

Leeds controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 21.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.