Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2–2 Legionovia Legionowo

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

FT

2 – 2

Legionovia Legionowo

11/29/2020

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Stadion im. Braci Gadajów

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Lechia T. Mazowiecki43%

×Draw23%

Legionovia Legionowo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia T. MazowieckiExpected goals in this matchLegionovia Legionowo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.48

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

1.70

Legionovia Legionowo

1.48

Lechia T. Mazowiecki creates 15% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 70 away

1.77

creates per match

1.69

1.26

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

1.77

Legionovia Legionowo

1.69

allows per match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

1.26

Legionovia Legionowo

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lechia T. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia T. Mazowiecki ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Lechia T. Mazowiecki or draw

66%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki or Legionovia Legionowo

77%

Draw or Legionovia Legionowo

57%

Winning margin

Lechia T. Mazowiecki wins by 2+

22%

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1+ goals

82%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2+ goals

51%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3+ goals

24%

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals

77%

Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals

43%

Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Lechia T. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)

56%

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia T. Mazowiecki at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.26 · 104 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki attack 1.77 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.70

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.69 + Lechia T. Mazowiecki defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lechia T. Mazowiecki scores more

43%

level

23%

Legionovia Legionowo scores more

34%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lechia T. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff