Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Lechia Gdansk

Preview

13:30

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

7/25/2026

I Liga · Round 1Polsat Plus Arena

65%

Lechia Gdansk

model favours

65%21%14%

Lechia Gdansk score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

52%

over 2.5 goals

47%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lechia Gdansk65%

×Draw21%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki14%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia GdanskExpected goals in this matchPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.80

Lechia Gdansk

1.97

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

0.80

Lechia Gdansk creates 146% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

2.18

creates per match

1.12

0.47

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk

2.18

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.12

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk

0.47

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw

86%

Lechia Gdansk or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

79%

Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

35%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

40%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

86%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

58%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

31%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals

55%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals

19%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

82%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 2.18 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.97

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 1.12 + Lechia Gdansk defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more

65%

level

21%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more

14%

Lechia Gdansk at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

70% of Lechia Gdansk’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Lechia Gdansk and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Gdansk

LLLLL

Mazowiecki

LLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff