Lech Poznan 1–3 Widzew Łódź: Result & Stats

Lech Poznan

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Widzew Łódź

11/26/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 16Enea Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Lech Poznan52%

×Draw23%

Widzew Łódź25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech PoznanExpected goals in this matchWidzew Łódź

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.19

Lech Poznan

1.82

Widzew Łódź

1.19

Lech Poznan creates 53% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

2.11

creates per match

1.13

1.25

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Lech Poznan

2.11

Widzew Łódź

1.13

allows per match

Lech Poznan

1.25

Widzew Łódź

1.54

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Lech Poznan+0.18scores more

Widzew Łódź-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznan ↓

Widzew Łódź →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Lech Poznan or draw

75%

Lech Poznan or Widzew Łódź

77%

Draw or Widzew Łódź

48%

Winning margin

Lech Poznan wins by 2+

29%

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lech Poznan 1+ goals

84%

Lech Poznan 2+ goals

54%

Lech Poznan 3+ goals

27%

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals

70%

Widzew Łódź 2+ goals

33%

Widzew Łódź 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)

68%

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznan at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.25 · 21 matches

Widzew Łódź away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznan attack 2.11 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.82

Widzew Łódź attack 1.13 + Lech Poznan defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lech Poznan scores more

52%

level

23%

Widzew Łódź scores more

25%

Lech Poznan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff