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Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice — Ekstraklasa 2018

Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice
12/10/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 18Enea Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Lech Poznan54%
×Draw22%
Piast Gliwice24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznan
1.90
Piast Gliwice
1.19

Lech Poznan creates 60% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lech Poznan
2.11
Piast Gliwice
1.12

allows per match

Lech Poznan
1.25
Piast Gliwice
1.70

finishing

Lech Poznan+0.18scores more
Piast Gliwice+0.28scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznan ↓

Piast Gliwice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lech Poznan or draw
76%
Lech Poznan or Piast Gliwice
78%
Draw or Piast Gliwice
46%

Winning margin

Lech Poznan wins by 2+
31%
Piast Gliwice wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lech Poznan 1+ goals
85%
Lech Poznan 2+ goals
56%
Lech Poznan 3+ goals
29%
Piast Gliwice 1+ goals
70%
Piast Gliwice 2+ goals
33%
Piast Gliwice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)
69%
Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznan at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.25 · 21 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.70 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznan attack 2.11 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.90

Piast Gliwice attack 1.12 + Lech Poznan defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lech Poznan scores more
54%
level
22%
Piast Gliwice scores more
24%

Lech Poznan at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice

Piast Gliwice beat Lech Poznan 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Enea Stadion in Poznań.