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Lecce vs Udinese — Serie A 2026

Lecce
Lecce
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Udinese
Udinese
Rodrigo De Paul 88'
1/6/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 18Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Lecce36%
×Draw27%
Udinese36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecce
1.25
Udinese
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 32 away

creates per match

Lecce
0.92
Udinese
1.05

allows per match

Lecce
1.44
Udinese
1.57

finishing

Lecce-0.34scores less
Udinese+0.17scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Udinese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lecce or draw
64%
Lecce or Udinese
73%
Draw or Udinese
64%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+
16%
Udinese wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals
71%
Lecce 2+ goals
36%
Lecce 3+ goals
13%
Udinese 1+ goals
71%
Udinese 2+ goals
36%
Udinese 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)
50%
Udinese (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.44 · 31 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.57 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 0.92 + Udinese defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Udinese attack 1.05 + Lecce defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Lecce scores more
36%
level
27%
Udinese scores more
36%

Lecce at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Rodrigo De PaulUdineseUdinese · M
8.1

Match Events

65'
Kevin Lasagna← Ilija Nestorovski
69'
Diego Farias← Andrea Tabanelli
75'
Ignacio Pussetto← Ken Sema
80'
Andrea La Mantia← Khouma Babacar
88'
Rodrigo De Paul
89'
Gabriel
89'
Rodrigo De Paul
90'
Antonín Barák← Rodrigo De Paul

Possession

46%Lecce

Shots

15Lecce

Pass accuracy

49%Lecce

Statistics

LecceUdinese
Overview
46%Possession54%
15Total Shots10
7Corners8
17Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots10
4On Target4
6Off Target4
5Blocked2
9Inside Box5
6Outside Box5
Passing
46%Possession54%
418Total Passes480
327Accurate Passes392
78%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
17Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides5

Match Recap: Lecce vs Udinese

Udinese beat Lecce 1-0 in Serie A on January 6, 2020.

Goals: Rodrigo De Paul (88').

Udinese controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare in Lecce.