Lecce 1–1 Fiorentina: Result & Stats | Serie A

Lecce

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fiorentina

A. Ceesay 42'

C. Kouamé 48'

10/17/2022

Serie A · Round 10Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Lecce35%

×Draw27%

Fiorentina38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LecceExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.27

Lecce

1.21

Fiorentina

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 26 away

0.92

creates per match

1.11

1.44

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Lecce

0.92

Fiorentina

1.11

allows per match

Lecce

1.44

Fiorentina

1.49

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Lecce-0.34scores less

Fiorentina+0.04on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lecce or draw

62%

Lecce or Fiorentina

73%

Draw or Fiorentina

65%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+

15%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals

70%

Lecce 2+ goals

34%

Lecce 3+ goals

12%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

72%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

36%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)

48%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.44 · 31 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.49 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 0.92 + Fiorentina defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.21

Fiorentina attack 1.11 + Lecce defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lecce scores more

35%

level

27%

Fiorentina scores more

38%

Fiorentina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Biraghi

Fiorentina · D

7.7

Match Events

7'

Arthur Cabral← L. Jović

15'

Rolando Mandragora

27'

Christian Kouamé

39'

Arthur CabralGoal cancelled

40'

Alexis Blin

42'

A. Ceesay↳ JoanGonzàlez

48'

C. Kouamé↳ Arthur Cabral

50'

Pietro Terracciano

58'

Gabriel Strefezza

59'

A. Duncan← R. Mandragora

59'

N. Milenković← Igor

60'

Samuel Umtiti

69'

K. Bistrović← K. Askildsen

74'

F. Di Francesco← L. Banda

83'

J. Ikoné← C. Kouamé

88'

Lucas Martínez Quarta

89'

Þ. Helgason← JoanGonzàlez

89'

V. Gendrey← S. Umtiti

90+5'

Antonino Gallo

90+3'

Antonino Gallo

90+5'

Antonino Gallo

90'

R. Oudin← Gabriel Strefezza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LecceFiorentina

Overview

41%Possession59%

6Total Shots10

2Corners8

15Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots10

2On Target5

4Off Target0

0Blocked5

6Inside Box4

0Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

302Total Passes446

210Accurate Passes337

70%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls16

5Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Lecce vs Fiorentina

Lecce and Fiorentina drew 1-1 in Serie A on October 17, 2022.

Goals: A. Ceesay (42'), C. Kouamé (48').

Fiorentina controlled possession (59%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare in Lecce.

Lecce vs Fiorentina — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lecce vs Fiorentina