Lecce 2–2 Cagliari: Result & Stats | Serie A

Lecce

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cagliari

Marco Calderoni 90'

Gianluca Lapadula 83' (pen)

Radja Nainggolan 67'

João Pedro 30' (pen)

11/25/2019

Serie A · Round 13Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Lecce38%

×Draw27%

Cagliari35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LecceExpected goals in this matchCagliari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.21

Lecce

1.29

Cagliari

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 25 away

0.91

creates per match

0.95

1.46

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Lecce

0.91

Cagliari

0.95

allows per match

Lecce

1.46

Cagliari

1.67

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Lecce-0.31scores less

Cagliari-0.03on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Cagliari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lecce or draw

65%

Lecce or Cagliari

73%

Draw or Cagliari

62%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+

17%

Cagliari wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals

72%

Lecce 2+ goals

37%

Lecce 3+ goals

14%

Cagliari 1+ goals

70%

Cagliari 2+ goals

34%

Cagliari 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)

53%

Cagliari (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.46 · 30 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 0.91 + Cagliari defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cagliari attack 0.95 + Lecce defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lecce scores more

38%

level

27%

Cagliari scores more

35%

Lecce at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Radja Nainggolan

Cagliari · M

7.7

Match Events

21'

Charalampos Lykogiannis

30'

João PedroPenalty

45'

Marko Rog

57'

Biagio Meccariello← Luca Rossettini

67'

Radja Nainggolan

68'

Jacopo Petriccione

69'

Diego Farias← Evgen Shakhov

76'

Artur Ioniță← Giovanni Simeone

81'

Fabrizio Cacciatore

83'

Gianluca LapadulaPenalty

85'

Robin Olsen

86'

Gianluca Lapadula

87'

Federico Mattiello← Marko Rog

87'

Rafael← Radja Nainggolan

88'

Edgaras Dubickas← Andrea Rispoli

90'

Marco Calderoni↳ Panagiotis Tachtsidis

90'

Diego Farias

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LecceCagliari

Overview

57%Possession43%

28Total Shots7

11Corners2

14Fouls18

Shots

28Total Shots7

8On Target2

12Off Target5

8Blocked0

19Inside Box3

9Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

488Total Passes376

420Accurate Passes289

86%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls18

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards2

3Offsides4