Lebring 2–3 TuS Heiligenkreuz: Result & Stats

Lebring

FT

2 – 3

TuS Heiligenkreuz

7/29/2022

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 1sanSirro Stadion Lebring

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Lebring50%

×Draw21%

TuS Heiligenkreuz29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LebringExpected goals in this matchTuS Heiligenkreuz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.59

Lebring

2.13

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.59

Lebring creates 34% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 72 away

2.16

creates per match

1.49

1.70

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Lebring

2.16

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.49

allows per match

Lebring

1.70

TuS Heiligenkreuz

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lebring+0.00on par

TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebring ↓

TuS Heiligenkreuz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Lebring or draw

71%

Lebring or TuS Heiligenkreuz

79%

Draw or TuS Heiligenkreuz

50%

Winning margin

Lebring wins by 2+

29%

TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lebring 1+ goals

88%

Lebring 2+ goals

63%

Lebring 3+ goals

35%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals

80%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals

47%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Lebring (draw refunded)

63%

TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lebring at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.70 · 89 matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lebring attack 2.16 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.13

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.49 + Lebring defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lebring scores more

50%

level

21%

TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more

29%

Lebring at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lebring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff