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Lebring vs Gnas — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Lebring
Lebring
CANC
13:00
Gnas
Gnas
11/4/2023Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 14sanSirro Stadion Lebring

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Lebring52%
×Draw21%
Gnas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lebring
2.08
Gnas
1.43

Lebring creates 45% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 73 away

creates per match

Lebring
2.16
Gnas
1.16

allows per match

Lebring
1.70
Gnas
2.00

finishing

Lebring+0.00on par
Gnas+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebring ↓

Gnas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Lebring or draw
74%
Lebring or Gnas
79%
Draw or Gnas
48%

Winning margin

Lebring wins by 2+
31%
Gnas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lebring 1+ goals
87%
Lebring 2+ goals
61%
Lebring 3+ goals
34%
Gnas 1+ goals
76%
Gnas 2+ goals
42%
Gnas 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lebring (draw refunded)
66%
Gnas (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lebring at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.70 · 89 matches

Gnas away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.00 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lebring attack 2.16 + Gnas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Gnas attack 1.16 + Lebring defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lebring scores more
52%
level
21%
Gnas scores more
26%

Lebring at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lebring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lebring face Gnas (Landesliga - Steiermark)

Landesliga - Steiermark returns with Lebring hosting Gnas. Match starts November 4, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lebring host Gnas at sanSirro Stadion Lebring.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.