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Leandro N. Alem vs Juventud Unida — Primera C 2026

Leandro N. Alem
Leandro N. Alem
Preview
20:00
Juventud Unida
Juventud Unida
8/1/2026Primera CPrimera C · Round 22
38%
Leandro N. Alem
model favours
38%31%30%

Leandro N. Alem score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
69%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Leandro N. Alem38%
×Draw31%
Juventud Unida30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leandro N. Alem
1.05
Juventud Unida
0.90

Leandro N. Alem creates 17% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 46 away

creates per match

Leandro N. Alem
1.01
Juventud Unida
0.76

allows per match

Leandro N. Alem
1.04
Juventud Unida
1.09

finishing

Leandro N. Alem+0.00on par
Juventud Unida+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leandro N. Alem ↓

Juventud Unida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Leandro N. Alem or draw
70%
Leandro N. Alem or Juventud Unida
69%
Draw or Juventud Unida
62%

Winning margin

Leandro N. Alem wins by 2+
15%
Juventud Unida wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Leandro N. Alem 1+ goals
65%
Leandro N. Alem 2+ goals
28%
Leandro N. Alem 3+ goals
9%
Juventud Unida 1+ goals
59%
Juventud Unida 2+ goals
23%
Juventud Unida 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Leandro N. Alem (draw refunded)
56%
Juventud Unida (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leandro N. Alem at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.04 · 140 matches

Juventud Unida away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leandro N. Alem attack 1.01 + Juventud Unida defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.05

Juventud Unida attack 0.76 + Leandro N. Alem defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leandro N. Alem scores more
38%
level
31%
Juventud Unida scores more
30%

Leandro N. Alem at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leandro N. Alem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Alem
WLDDL
Unida
DLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Leandro N. Alem host Juventud Unida

August 1, 2026: Leandro N. Alem take on Juventud Unida in Primera C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.