Lealtad 1–0 Covadonga: Result & Stats

Lealtad

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Covadonga

10/18/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Estadio Las Callejas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lealtad54%

×Draw25%

Covadonga22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LealtadExpected goals in this matchCovadonga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.92

Lealtad

1.61

Covadonga

0.92

Lealtad creates 75% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

0.69

creates per match

1.15

0.69

allows per match

2.54

creates per match

Lealtad

0.69

Covadonga

1.15

allows per match

Lealtad

0.69

Covadonga

2.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lealtad+0.00on par

Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lealtad ↓

Covadonga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lealtad or draw

78%

Lealtad or Covadonga

75%

Draw or Covadonga

46%

Winning margin

Lealtad wins by 2+

28%

Covadonga wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lealtad 1+ goals

80%

Lealtad 2+ goals

48%

Lealtad 3+ goals

22%

Covadonga 1+ goals

60%

Covadonga 2+ goals

23%

Covadonga 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lealtad (draw refunded)

71%

Covadonga (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lealtad at home — creates 0.69, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lealtad attack 0.69 + Covadonga defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.61

Covadonga attack 1.15 + Lealtad defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lealtad scores more

54%

level

25%

Covadonga scores more

22%

Lealtad at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lealtad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff