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LDU Portoviejo vs Santa Rita — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

LDU Portoviejo
LDU Portoviejo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Santa Rita
Santa Rita
5/23/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 14Estadio Reales Tamarindos (Portoviejo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

LDU Portoviejo52%
×Draw27%
Santa Rita21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU Portoviejo
1.40
Santa Rita
0.78

LDU Portoviejo creates 79% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 49 away

creates per match

LDU Portoviejo
1.55
Santa Rita
0.69

allows per match

LDU Portoviejo
0.87
Santa Rita
1.24

finishing

LDU Portoviejo+0.00on par
Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU Portoviejo ↓

Santa Rita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

LDU Portoviejo or draw
79%
LDU Portoviejo or Santa Rita
73%
Draw or Santa Rita
48%

Winning margin

LDU Portoviejo wins by 2+
25%
Santa Rita wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

LDU Portoviejo 1+ goals
75%
LDU Portoviejo 2+ goals
41%
LDU Portoviejo 3+ goals
17%
Santa Rita 1+ goals
54%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
18%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

LDU Portoviejo (draw refunded)
71%
Santa Rita (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU Portoviejo at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.87 · 67 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU Portoviejo attack 1.55 + Santa Rita defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Santa Rita attack 0.69 + LDU Portoviejo defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

LDU Portoviejo scores more
52%
level
27%
Santa Rita scores more
21%

LDU Portoviejo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "LDU Portoviejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LDU Portoviejo vs Santa Rita

LDU Portoviejo and Santa Rita drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on May 23, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Reales Tamarindos (Portoviejo).