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LDU Portoviejo vs Puerto Quito — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

LDU Portoviejo
LDU Portoviejo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Puerto Quito
Puerto Quito
9/1/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 29Estadio Reales Tamarindos (Portoviejo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

LDU Portoviejo52%
×Draw27%
Puerto Quito21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU Portoviejo
1.46
Puerto Quito
0.81

LDU Portoviejo creates 80% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 85 away

creates per match

LDU Portoviejo
1.55
Puerto Quito
0.76

allows per match

LDU Portoviejo
0.87
Puerto Quito
1.36

finishing

LDU Portoviejo+0.00on par
Puerto Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU Portoviejo ↓

Puerto Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

LDU Portoviejo or draw
79%
LDU Portoviejo or Puerto Quito
73%
Draw or Puerto Quito
48%

Winning margin

LDU Portoviejo wins by 2+
26%
Puerto Quito wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

LDU Portoviejo 1+ goals
77%
LDU Portoviejo 2+ goals
43%
LDU Portoviejo 3+ goals
18%
Puerto Quito 1+ goals
56%
Puerto Quito 2+ goals
19%
Puerto Quito 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

LDU Portoviejo (draw refunded)
72%
Puerto Quito (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU Portoviejo at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.87 · 67 matches

Puerto Quito away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.36 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU Portoviejo attack 1.55 + Puerto Quito defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Puerto Quito attack 0.76 + LDU Portoviejo defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

LDU Portoviejo scores more
52%
level
27%
Puerto Quito scores more
21%

LDU Portoviejo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "LDU Portoviejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LDU Portoviejo vs Puerto Quito

LDU Portoviejo beat Puerto Quito 2-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 1, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Reales Tamarindos (Portoviejo).