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LDU Portoviejo vs Macara — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

LDU Portoviejo
LDU Portoviejo
FT
1 – 1
Macara
Macara
10/26/2014Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 38Estadio Reales Tamarindos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

LDU Portoviejo43%
×Draw28%
Macara30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU Portoviejo
1.31
Macara
1.04

LDU Portoviejo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 27 away

creates per match

LDU Portoviejo
1.51
Macara
1.15

allows per match

LDU Portoviejo
0.94
Macara
1.11

finishing

LDU Portoviejo+0.00on par
Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU Portoviejo ↓

Macara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

LDU Portoviejo or draw
70%
LDU Portoviejo or Macara
72%
Draw or Macara
57%

Winning margin

LDU Portoviejo wins by 2+
20%
Macara wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

LDU Portoviejo 1+ goals
73%
LDU Portoviejo 2+ goals
38%
LDU Portoviejo 3+ goals
14%
Macara 1+ goals
65%
Macara 2+ goals
28%
Macara 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

LDU Portoviejo (draw refunded)
59%
Macara (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU Portoviejo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 83 matches

Macara away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU Portoviejo attack 1.51 + Macara defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Macara attack 1.15 + LDU Portoviejo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

LDU Portoviejo scores more
43%
level
28%
Macara scores more
30%

LDU Portoviejo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "LDU Portoviejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LDU Portoviejo vs Macara

LDU Portoviejo and Macara drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 26, 2014.

The match was played at Estadio Reales Tamarindos in Portoviejo.