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LDU de Quito vs Orense SC — Liga Pro 2026

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Orense SC
Orense SC
10/6/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 9Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

LDU de Quito59%
×Draw24%
Orense SC17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.67
Orense SC
0.78

LDU de Quito creates 114% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 104 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
1.91
Orense SC
0.69

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.88
Orense SC
1.43

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Orense SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
83%
LDU de Quito or Orense SC
76%
Draw or Orense SC
41%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
32%
Orense SC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
81%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
50%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
23%
Orense SC 1+ goals
54%
Orense SC 2+ goals
18%
Orense SC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
77%
Orense SC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.88 · 134 matches

Orense SC away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.43 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.91 + Orense SC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.67

Orense SC attack 0.69 + LDU de Quito defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
59%
level
24%
Orense SC scores more
17%

LDU de Quito at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: LDU de Quito 2–0 Orense SC

LDU de Quito beat Orense SC 2-0 in Liga Pro on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.