LDU de Quito vs Orense SC — Liga Pro 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 7+ matches
LDU de Quito52%
Orense SC23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
LDU de Quito creates 62% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
LDU de Quito ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.92 · 7 matches
Orense SC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.82 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
LDU de Quito attack 1.46 + Orense SC defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.64
Orense SC attack 1.09 + LDU de Quito defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.01
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
LDU de Quito at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
Macara
Aucas
Barcelona SC
Delfin SC
Guayaquil City FC
Universidad Catolica
EmelecLDU de Quito
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
Tecnico Universitario
Deportivo CuencaOrense SC
Manta FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
LDU de Quito host Orense SC on Sunday, 4 September 2022 at 21:30. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2026/2027 season.
LDU de Quito 1 – 2 Orense SC
Orense SC beat LDU de Quito 2-1 in Liga Pro on September 4, 2022.
Goals: J. Andrade (4'), R. Calderón (7'), A. Alvarado (76').
The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.