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LDU de Quito vs Macara — Liga Pro 2026

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Macara
Macara
Á. Cazula 63' (OG)
T. Molina 45+2'
M. Hernández 26' (OG)
P. Mancilla 78'
L. Arce 23'
5/29/2022Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 15Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

LDU de Quito45%
×Draw27%
Macara28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.38
Macara
1.01

LDU de Quito creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
1.46
Macara
1.10

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.92
Macara
1.30

finishing

LDU de Quito-0.03on par
Macara+0.23scores more

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Macara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
72%
LDU de Quito or Macara
73%
Draw or Macara
55%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
22%
Macara wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
75%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
40%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
16%
Macara 1+ goals
64%
Macara 2+ goals
27%
Macara 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
62%
Macara (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.92 · 7 matches

Macara away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.46 + Macara defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.38

Macara attack 1.10 + LDU de Quito defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
45%
level
27%
Macara scores more
28%

LDU de Quito at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
L. Arce↳ F. Mina
26'
M. HernándezOwn goal
45+4'
Iván Ortigoza
45+2'
T. Molina↳ L. Ayala
57'
J. Valencia← F. Mejía
57'
P. Mancilla← I. Ortigoza
63'
Á. CazulaOwn goal
77'
Alexander Alvarado
78'
P. Mancilla↳ M. Hernández
80'
Daniel Valencia
81'
B. Peña← R. Champang
84'
J. Ortiz← J. Espinoza
84'
G. Nnachi← T. Molina
89'
D. Romero← N. Angulo
90+3'
Ivan Zambrano
90'
J. Quiñonez← A. Alvarado
90+2'
I. Zambrano← F. Mina
90+1'
R. Johnson← B. Hernández

Possession

53%LDU

Shots

9LDU

Statistics

LDUMacara
Overview
53%Possession47%
9Total Shots9
3Corners4
16Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots9
3On Target6
5Off Target3
Passing
53%Possession47%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: LDU de Quito vs Macara

LDU de Quito beat Macara 3-2 in Liga Pro on May 29, 2022.

Goals: L. Arce (23'), M. Hernández (26' o.g.), T. Molina (45+2'), Á. Cazula (63' o.g.), P. Mancilla (78').

LDU de Quito controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.