LDU de Quito 2–1 Macara: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

LDU de Quito

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Macara

L. Amarilla 90+2'

A. Muñoz 41'

R. Garcés 73'

5/1/2021

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 10Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

LDU de Quito45%

×Draw27%

Macara28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchMacara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.01

LDU de Quito

1.38

Macara

1.01

LDU de Quito creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.46

creates per match

1.10

0.92

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

LDU de Quito

1.46

Macara

1.10

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.92

Macara

1.30

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

LDU de Quito-0.03on par

Macara+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Macara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

72%

LDU de Quito or Macara

73%

Draw or Macara

55%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

22%

Macara wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

75%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

40%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

16%

Macara 1+ goals

64%

Macara 2+ goals

27%

Macara 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

62%

Macara (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.92 · 7 matches

Macara away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.46 + Macara defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.38

Macara attack 1.10 + LDU de Quito defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

45%

level

27%

Macara scores more

28%

LDU de Quito at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

7'

41'

46'

46'

E. Rodríguez← B. Díaz

52'

M. Corozo← F. Guerra

62'

F. Mina← A. Rodríguez

62'

M. Orlando← J. Santacruz

63'

J. Espinoza← L. Villarruel

63'

L. Ayala← C. Cruz

64'

José Quintero

70'

Joseph Espinoza

73'

R. Garcés↳ R. Calderón

75'

J. Kaprof← L. Caicedo

80'

Billy Arce

80'

I. Zambrano← R. Calderón

85'

M. Jaramillo← F. Mora

90+2'

L. Amarilla↳ B. Arce

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LDUMacara

Overview

52%Possession48%

20Total Shots13

6Corners6

16Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots13

10On Target8

10Off Target5

Passing

52%Possession48%

Goalkeeping

7Saves8

Discipline

16Fouls13

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1