LDU de Quito 3–0 Barcelona SC: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Barcelona SC

J. Quintero 79', 29'

F. Cornejo 2'

8/31/2024

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 5Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

LDU de Quito50%

×Draw26%

Barcelona SC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchBarcelona SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.01

LDU de Quito

1.55

Barcelona SC

1.01

LDU de Quito creates 53% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.46

creates per match

1.10

0.92

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

LDU de Quito

1.46

Barcelona SC

1.10

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.92

Barcelona SC

1.64

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

LDU de Quito-0.03on par

Barcelona SC-0.27scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Barcelona SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

75%

LDU de Quito or Barcelona SC

74%

Draw or Barcelona SC

50%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

26%

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

79%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

46%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

20%

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

64%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

27%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

67%

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.92 · 7 matches

Barcelona SC away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.64 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.46 + Barcelona SC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.55

Barcelona SC attack 1.10 + LDU de Quito defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

50%

level

26%

Barcelona SC scores more

25%

LDU de Quito at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Quintero

LDU de Quito · D

8.6

Match Events

2'

F. Cornejo↳ L. Quiñónez

22'

28'

29'

37'

46'

61'

F. Gaibor← Leonai

68'

L. Estupiñán← J. Julio

69'

71'

78'

78'

79'

J. Quintero↳ L. Quiñónez

83'

A. Zanini← B. Ramírez

84'

Luis Estupiñan

84'

L. Alzugaray← M. Julio

85'

Brian Oyola

90'

G. Villamíl← F. Cornejo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LDUBarcelona

Overview

42%Possession58%

14Total Shots10

6Corners4

21Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots10

6On Target3

4Off Target4

4Blocked3

7Inside Box8

7Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

267Total Passes360

201Accurate Passes299

75%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

21Fouls13

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2