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Lazio vs Juventus — Serie A 2018

Lazio
Lazio
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Juventus
Juventus
11/20/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 13Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Lazio32%
×Draw26%
Juventus42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio
1.18
Juventus
1.39

Juventus creates 18% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 32 away

creates per match

Lazio
1.37
Juventus
1.48

allows per match

Lazio
1.29
Juventus
0.99

finishing

Lazio+0.09on par
Juventus-0.07on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Juventus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lazio or draw
58%
Lazio or Juventus
74%
Draw or Juventus
68%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+
13%
Juventus wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals
69%
Lazio 2+ goals
33%
Lazio 3+ goals
12%
Juventus 1+ goals
75%
Juventus 2+ goals
40%
Juventus 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)
43%
Juventus (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.99 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.37 + Juventus defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.18

Juventus attack 1.48 + Lazio defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lazio scores more
32%
level
26%
Juventus scores more
42%

Juventus at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lazio vs Juventus

Juventus beat Lazio 2-0 in Serie A on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.