Lazio 3–1 Juventus: Result & Stats | Serie A

Lazio

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Juventus

Felipe Caicedo 90'

Sergej Milinković-Savić 74'

Luiz Felipe 45'

Cristiano Ronaldo 25'

12/7/2019

Serie A · Round 15Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Lazio32%

×Draw27%

Juventus41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LazioExpected goals in this matchJuventus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.35

Lazio

1.16

Juventus

1.35

Juventus creates 16% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 33 away

1.31

creates per match

1.46

1.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Lazio

1.31

Juventus

1.46

allows per match

Lazio

1.25

Juventus

1.00

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Lazio+0.08on par

Juventus-0.07on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Juventus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lazio or draw

59%

Lazio or Juventus

73%

Draw or Juventus

68%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+

13%

Juventus wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals

69%

Lazio 2+ goals

32%

Lazio 3+ goals

11%

Juventus 1+ goals

74%

Juventus 2+ goals

39%

Juventus 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)

44%

Juventus (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.31 + Juventus defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Juventus attack 1.46 + Lazio defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lazio scores more

32%

level

27%

Juventus scores more

41%

Juventus at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Cristiano Ronaldo

Juventus · F

7.8

Match Events

6'

Luis Alberto

11'

Miralem Pjanić

25'

Cristiano Ronaldo↳ Rodrigo Bentancur

37'

Paulo Dybala

41'

Emre Can← Rodrigo Bentancur

45'

Luiz Felipe↳ Luis Alberto

63'

Manuel Lazzari

69'

Juan Cuadrado

71'

Danilo← Federico Bernardeschi

74'

Sergej Milinković-Savić↳ Luis Alberto

75'

Marco Parolo← Luis Alberto

77'

Wojciech Szczęsny

79'

Ciro ImmobileMissed penalty

79'

Gonzalo Higuaín← Paulo Dybala

85'

Danilo Cataldi← Ciro Immobile

86'

Lucas Leiva

90'

Felipe Caicedo

90'

Felipe Caicedo

90'

Felipe Caicedo← Sergej Milinković-Savić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LazioJuventus

Overview

39%Possession61%

18Total Shots9

4Corners5

15Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots9

9On Target4

4Off Target4

5Blocked1

14Inside Box6

4Outside Box3

Passing

39%Possession61%

371Total Passes571

313Accurate Passes508

84%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0

Serie A: Lazio 3–1 Juventus

Lazio beat Juventus 3-1 in Serie A on December 7, 2019.

Goals: Cristiano Ronaldo (25'), Luiz Felipe (45'), Sergej Milinković-Savić (74'), Felipe Caicedo (90').

Juventus controlled possession (61%) and registered 9 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.

Lazio vs Juventus — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Lazio 3–1 Juventus