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Lazio vs Inter — Serie A 2018

Lazio
Lazio
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Inter
Inter
8/26/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 3Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Lazio31%
×Draw25%
Inter44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio
1.22
Inter
1.52

Inter creates 25% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

creates per match

Lazio
1.37
Inter
1.74

allows per match

Lazio
1.29
Inter
1.06

finishing

Lazio+0.09on par
Inter+0.46scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Inter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lazio or draw
56%
Lazio or Inter
75%
Draw or Inter
69%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+
13%
Inter wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals
70%
Lazio 2+ goals
34%
Lazio 3+ goals
12%
Inter 1+ goals
78%
Inter 2+ goals
45%
Inter 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)
41%
Inter (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Inter away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.06 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.37 + Inter defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Inter attack 1.74 + Lazio defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lazio scores more
31%
level
25%
Inter scores more
44%

Inter at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Lazio 3–1 Inter

Lazio beat Inter 3-1 in Serie A on August 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.