Lazio 4–0 Genoa: Result & Stats | Serie A

Lazio

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Genoa

Ciro Immobile 78'

Felipe Caicedo 59'

Ştefan Radu 41', 40'

Sergej Milinković-Savić 7'

9/29/2019

Serie A · Round 6Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Lazio42%

×Draw27%

Genoa31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LazioExpected goals in this matchGenoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.15

Lazio

1.39

Genoa

1.15

Lazio creates 21% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

1.31

creates per match

1.04

1.25

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Lazio

1.31

Genoa

1.04

allows per match

Lazio

1.25

Genoa

1.47

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Lazio+0.08on par

Genoa-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Genoa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lazio or draw

69%

Lazio or Genoa

73%

Draw or Genoa

58%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+

20%

Genoa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals

75%

Lazio 2+ goals

40%

Lazio 3+ goals

16%

Genoa 1+ goals

68%

Genoa 2+ goals

32%

Genoa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)

58%

Genoa (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.31 + Genoa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Genoa attack 1.04 + Lazio defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lazio scores more

42%

level

27%

Genoa scores more

31%

Lazio at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Sergej Milinković-Savić

Lazio · M

8.8

Match Events

7'

Sergej Milinković-Savić↳ Ciro Immobile

29'

Jawad El Yamiq

40'

Ştefan Radu↳ Luis Alberto

41'

Ştefan Radu↳ Luis Alberto

46'

Marko Pajač← Antonio Barreca

46'

Goran Pandev← Lukas Lerager

52'

Felipe Caicedo← Joaquín Correa

59'

Felipe Caicedo↳ Sergej Milinković-Savić

69'

Lasse Schöne← Francesco Cassata

73'

Antonio Sanabria

74'

Marco Parolo← Sergej Milinković-Savić

78'

Ciro Immobile↳ Luiz Felipe

86'

Bobby Adekanye← Ciro Immobile

90'

Felipe Caicedo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LazioGenoa

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots13

5Corners7

8Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots13

10On Target6

2Off Target6

3Blocked1

10Inside Box5

5Outside Box8

Passing

54%Possession46%

550Total Passes431

484Accurate Passes369

88%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

6Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Lazio vs Genoa

Lazio beat Genoa 4-0 in Serie A on September 29, 2019.

Goals: Sergej Milinković-Savić (7'), Ştefan Radu (40', 41'), Felipe Caicedo (59'), Ciro Immobile (78').

Lazio controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.

Lazio vs Genoa — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lazio vs Genoa