Lazio 4–1 Genoa: Result & Stats | Serie A

Lazio

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Genoa

C. Immobile 89', 23'

S. Milinković-Savić 53'

F. Caicedo 7'

K. Piątek 46'

9/23/2018

Serie A · Round 5Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Lazio43%

×Draw27%

Genoa31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LazioExpected goals in this matchGenoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.14

Lazio

1.40

Genoa

1.14

Lazio creates 23% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 27 away

1.33

creates per match

1.04

1.24

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Lazio

1.33

Genoa

1.04

allows per match

Lazio

1.24

Genoa

1.47

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Lazio+0.14scores more

Genoa-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Genoa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lazio or draw

69%

Lazio or Genoa

73%

Draw or Genoa

57%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+

20%

Genoa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals

75%

Lazio 2+ goals

41%

Lazio 3+ goals

17%

Genoa 1+ goals

68%

Genoa 2+ goals

32%

Genoa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)

58%

Genoa (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.24 · 32 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.33 + Genoa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Genoa attack 1.04 + Lazio defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lazio scores more

43%

level

27%

Genoa scores more

31%

Lazio at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

C. Immobile

Lazio · F

9.4

Match Events

7'

F. Caicedo↳ S. Milinković-Savić

11'

Nicolás Spolli

23'

C. Immobile↳ M. Parolo

27'

C. Kouamé← N. Spolli

45'

Daniel Bessa

46'

K. Piątek

53'

S. Milinković-Savić↳ S. Lulić

57'

D. Lazović← Rômulo

62'

J. Correa← F. Caicedo

62'

Sandro← Iuri Medeiros

72'

M. Badelj← S. Milinković-Savić

80'

Milan Badelj

86'

Patric← A. Marušić

89'

C. Immobile

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LazioGenoa

Overview

56%Possession44%

20Total Shots11

5Corners3

10Fouls7

Shots

20Total Shots11

7On Target4

8Off Target4

5Blocked3

15Inside Box4

5Outside Box7

Passing

56%Possession44%

497Total Passes382

431Accurate Passes319

87%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Lazio vs Genoa

Lazio beat Genoa 4-1 in Serie A on September 23, 2018.

Goals: F. Caicedo (7'), C. Immobile (23', 89'), K. Piątek (46'), S. Milinković-Savić (53').

Lazio controlled possession (56%) and registered 20 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Rome.

Lazio vs Genoa — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lazio vs Genoa